Report: The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Montana Agriculture

Farm Connect Montana released a new report in November 2024 titled “The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Montana Agriculture.” Farm Connect Montana commissioned the report by Power Consulting Incorporated to examine the economic repercussions of climate change on Montana's important agricultural sectors. This report is preceded by Montana Wildlife Federation’s report on “The Economic Impact of Climate Change in Montana.”

Drawing on a variety of sources, the report examines the impacts of a changing climate on temperature and precipitation patterns to predict impacts to agricultural operations that produce crops and livestock, particularly cattle. The report predicts a loss of more than 9,500 jobs and more than $181 million dollars per year in labor earnings in these sectors by mid-century due to the impact of climate change.

“The impact of climate change on Montana agricultural operations cannot be understated,” said Bonnie Buckingham, executive director of Farm Connect Montana. “Without concerted efforts to slow the release of emissions and measures to support smaller producers, we may see devastating impacts to this important sector of Montana’s economy.”

The report also notes that small agricultural operations may be better able to adopt and implement climate change mitigation strategies, but larger agricultural operations in the western United States currently have greater access to resources and support needed for climate adaptations.

“Smaller producers are able to pivot more swiftly than many large producers, but they don’t always have the resources to do so,” Buckingham said. “Farm Connect Montana can help producers of all sizes prepare for and adapt to the needs of growing and raising livestock in a changing climate.”

Key Findings:

• The report predicts a loss of more than 9,500 jobs and more than $181 million dollars per year in labor earnings in Montana agricultural sectors by mid-century due to the impact of climate change.

• The report estimates that Montana grain crop yields could be reduced by 20% by mid-century due to climate change. Wheat, barley, and hay sectors of Montana agriculture are the source of about 76% of agricultural sales. The impact of climate change could result in a loss of 5,000 wheat, barley, and hay jobs and more than $95 million in labor earnings.

• The report projects a 20% decline in the rangeland cattle sector in Montana by mid-century or 4,514 cattle ranching jobs and more than $86 million in labor earnings from cow and calf operations. Western rangeland has already experienced a decline of 20% in the recent historical record as the result of climate change, and this report predicts that number will worsen.

• Some climate adaptation strategies may be easier for small-scale operations due to labor requirements and pasture sizes, but larger operations in the western United States currently have greater access to resources and support needed for climate adaptations. This could speak to a more pressing need for support systems that can help smaller operations access the resources needed to plan for and achieve climate adaptation strategies.

• The report predicts that the impact of climate change will hit Montana’s rural areas and small towns most heavily, especially in eastern Montana. Population density will fall further, undermining the viability of local businesses as well as the services provided by local governments and discourage new residents from settling in rural communities.